In the upcoming week, the world’s attention will be focused on the statements of leaders from institutions such as the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the National Bank of Poland.

💡 In short, it will be key to observe inflation trends, both in Poland and globally, as well as the political decisions made by major central banks. If these indicators are favorable, there is potential to lower mortgage interest rates in Poland this year.

Particular attention is drawn to data from the U.S. labor market. Upcoming market events include speeches by Jerome Powell and other key central bankers.

  • Starting from Monday, March 4, we will focus on Turkish inflation data, followed by Swiss inflation indicators. The European Sentix Index will be published, as well as financial reports of companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange.
  • On Tuesday, March 5, we are expecting data from Japan and a speech by the Governor of the Bank of Japan, as well as a series of PMI data from various countries and the U.S. ISM index. Eurostat will publish information on producer inflation in the euro area, and the United States – on industrial orders.
  • Wednesday, March 6, will bring decisions of the Polish Monetary Policy Council and German foreign trade data. From the USA, labor market data will come, including the ADP report and the JOLTS survey, as well as decisions of the Bank of Canada and a speech by Jerome Powell.
  • On Thursday, March 7, Germany will publish data on industrial orders, and the ECB will make a decision on interest rates. In the USA, data will appear on corporate layoffs, trade balance, and labor productivity.
  • Friday, March 8, is a day of politics with an Irish referendum and the American State of the Union address, as well as a report from the U.S. labor market and data from Germany and Hungary.
  • The weekend will bring Chinese inflation data on Saturday and early parliamentary elections in Portugal on Sunday.

Why is this so important for Poland?

For mortgage interest rates in Poland to fall this year, several key events would have to develop in a way that is conducive to lowering interest rates. Currently, high mortgage interest rates are mainly associated with the efforts of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to control inflation by raising interest rates. Here’s what could happen to increase the chances of lowering mortgage rates:

  • A drop in inflation in Poland and globally: If inflation started to clearly decrease, the NBP might consider lowering interest rates, which in turn would contribute to reducing mortgage rates.
  • Stabilization of the economic situation: Improvement of the economic condition in Poland and globally could enable the NBP to ease monetary policy without the risk of excessively stimulating inflation.
  • Decisions of other central banks: If key central banks, such as the Federal Reserve in the USA or the European Central Bank, decided to ease monetary policy, it could create space for similar actions by the NBP.
  • Positive economic and inflation forecasts: If the latest forecasts and economic reports indicated inflation stabilization and economic growth, it could persuade the NBP to lower interest rates.